Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

When it comes to the Taiwan question, some Japanese politicians have been proclaiming that "a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency." However, Tokyo's actions speak louder - and more cautiously - than words. On Saturday, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Japanese government officials are telling companies they would be "on their own" in the event of a cross-Straits conflict, if they needed to evacuate staff from Taiwan island. 

This may seem at odds with the hardline rhetoric of certain Japanese politicians, but in reality, it reflects a clear-eyed recognition of the facts: Japan has little real intention of getting pulled into a military conflict with China.

The report said, "companies have been receiving the warnings for about three years," and as a result, foreign direct investment by Japanese companies - traditionally Taiwan's third-largest source of FDI, after the EU and US - slumped 27 percent last year to $452 million, down from a peak of $1.7 billion in 2022.

For quite some time, Japan has taken an active stance on the Taiwan question, often invoking the need for "regional stability" while aligning itself with Washington's Indo-Pacific Strategy and seeking to assert its relevance in regional affairs. But making statements is one thing and getting directly involved in a conflict is another. In practice, Tokyo faces not only the legal constraints of its pacifist constitution regarding overseas military operations but also the delicate task of managing its complex relationship with China.

Against this backdrop, the Japanese government's message to domestic firms operating in Taiwan region that they'll be on their own if a crisis breaks out sounds less like a contingency plan and more like a blunt dose of realism: When real pressure hits, there's far less the government can do than what its slogans might lead people to believe.

Meanwhile, Japanese companies have been pulling out their investments, a sign that business leaders have a clearer understanding than politicians of what risk actually entails.

Earlier this month, after reports revealed that the Pentagon pressed Japan and Australia on their roles in possible Taiwan Straits conflicts, Japan's defense ministry said that it was difficult to answer a hypothetical question regarding a Taiwan emergency, and the country's response would be "implemented on an individual and specific basis in accordance with the constitution, international law, and domestic laws and regulations, including the legislation for peace and security." During his recent trip to China, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reaffirmed Australia's commitment to the one-China policy. 

Both Japan and Australia are staunch US allies, yet they recognize that Washington has never made a clear commitment to Taiwan - while still expecting its allies to take the lead in a potential cross-Straits conflict against China. No country wants to be caught in the crossfire of an uncertain war, fighting someone else's battles while shouldering strategic costs it cannot bear. 

A more significant reason behind the withdrawal of Japanese investment from Taiwan is that, since Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te took office, his focus has never been on improving livelihoods on the island and creating a favorable environment for investment but rather on pushing forward a pro-independence agenda. This shift has unsettled investors' confidence in the island's market. Against this backdrop, the retreat of Japanese companies from Taiwan comes as little surprise. 

The warnings from Japanese government officials to Japanese companies on Taiwan island highlight a harsh reality in the great power game: Empty bravado cannot replace grounded risk management.

When Japan is no longer willing to foot the bill for a "Taiwan contingency," when Australia reaffirms its commitment to the one-China policy, and when the US sticks to strategic ambiguity, as always, who then can Taiwan island truly rely on? 

At the very least, the Taiwan authorities should wake up to the fact that clinging blindly to external support is nothing short of digging its own grave.